Not your usual real estate market update today.
We’re coming up on that time of year where you are supposed to be thankful. Maybe you’re not feeling that peaceful though. I’ve got something that might help you today. Plus, I never learn from my mistakes so I’m going to forecast market trends for 2025.
I was helping my friend Mike prepare for a webinar tomorrow. The topic is going to be gratitude. He didn’t want to take the same old tired shit, so I gave him this idea. Why don’t you guys try it with me?
Hit pause on this video and write down all the things you are grateful for at this precise moment. Don’t roll your eyes at me, you know who I am. I’m going to get fresh with you in just a second so play along.
You’re back? Ok great. Now: tell me why you ever get annoyed, frustrated, or grumpy. Look at that list! How ungrateful of you to be in a bad mood when you have all those amazing things.
It’s not that simple though, is it? I’ll tell you why you’re in a funk in spite of all the things you wrote down. Because we are not only human, you and me, we are driven humans. A huge component of your success is the complete lack of complacency. Nothing is ever enough, but in a good way. Your goals are big, and your dreams are bigger.
So what to do when times are not just tough but also heavy. So heavy that sometimes you aren’t even sure what the weight is that you feel on your shoulders. You know, kind of like when you’ve been working in a market that keeps promising to turn around and starts to, gives you a little bit of hope and then does a complete about-face and hits you with the next ball from a pitching machine chalk full of curve balls that’s been firing at your face for going on 3 years now. You’re trying to be a course of calm for everyone, their trusted real estate advisor who never panics and is always grateful! Look at the list! Just feel gratitude and everything will be fine. FEEL IT ALREADY.
Not working? Ok, ok. Let’s try something else.
It’s a favorite of mine. Let’s try human connection in order to feel lasting gratitude. I have this little trick I’m going to tell you about. When I do something that makes someone else feel grateful for me, I feel better about myself. You might be thinking that’s selfish. I don’t care. I think we can all start feeling grateful for our ability to serve. Make a new list for me. A list of little favors, little acts of kindness you can do this weekend. I would love it if you replied to this email on Monday or post a comment below and let me know how it went.
Economic Forecast
You might have missed this appointment with all the news space Matt Gaetz and Pete Hegseth took up this week. Trump is looking at Kevin Warsh as Treasury secretary, with the long-term play being that Warsh would replace Powell as Fed Chair in May of 2026.
Announcing Powell’s replacement now, this far in advance, would put market attention on the future chair rather than the current. This would be quite the play to use a “shadow” Fed chair to essentially make Powell – who we know is not Trump’s fav – a lame duck. (Note: Trump did appoint Powell but later rescinded his approval when Powell started raising rates to tackle inflation.) This is where you real estate folks should start paying attention. Let’s start with the background on Kev.
Back in 2018, Warsh was a published critic of Trump’s tariffs – writing in the Wall Street Journal that Trump’s plans would lead to “economic isolationism” for the US which he believed would be detrimental, or in his words: “do great harm” to our economic growth. We won’t hold this against him of course because 2018 was a long time ago and Vance himself was a “never Trump guy.”
Warsh is a lawyer turned investment banker. He served in George W’s administration as an economic aide and is the youngest Fed governor to have a seat on the central bank’s board. Warsh met with Trump Wednesday night this week, likely to see if he’d changed his mind on Trump’s tariffs policy. Trump has also said that president should have more say over Fed policy – rate cuts and hikes. He probably wanted to see if Warsh was cool with that, considering the central bank has historically been politically autonomous.
I’m going to get really specific on how I think all of these appointments, policies and rhetoric will affect the bond market and in turn interest rates, which in turn will drive or stifle real estate sales in 2025. I’m planning a special Smarter Hour on December 18 to share this with you all so save the date. It will be both in person and virtual.